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Formation Forecasting Principles (Lows)
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Aerographers Mate 1 & C
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CHAPTER 3 FORECASTING SURFACE SYSTEMS

.  All  factors  point  toward  weakening  of  the system. 7. Sketch the preliminary contours, connecting the forecast  positions  of  the  long  waves,  short  waves,  and the pressure systems with the values determined by steps 1 through 5 above. 8. The last step in the construction of a constant pressure prognostic chart is to check the chart for the following  points: . The chart should follow continuity from the existing pattern. . The chart should be vertically consistent and rational in the horizontal. . The chart should not deviate from the seasonal pattern unless substantiated beyond a doubt. .  Unless  indicators  dictate  otherwise,  it  should follow  the  normal  patterns. Now draw the smooth contours, troughs, ridges, highs, and lows; and adjust the gradients. Application of Satellite Imagery Satellite  imagery  provides  the  forecaster  with information  that  may  be  used  in  conjunction  with previously   discussed   techniques   in   forecasting movement and intensity of troughs, ridges, and systems aloft. As discussed in the AG2 TRAMAN, volume 1, satellite imagery should be compared with the analyzed charts and products to ensure they reflect a true picture of the atmosphere. As with the analyses, satellite imagery should also be used in preparation of your forecast  products. The   following   features   can   be   useful   to   the forecaster  in  producing  prognostic  upper-air  charts: . Positive vorticity advection maximum (PVA maximum)  cloud  patterns  associated  with  the  upper-air troughs and ridges l Cloud patters indicative of the wind flow aloft Computer  Products Upper-level prognostic charts with varying valid times are uploaded to the Naval Oceanographic and Data  Distribution  System  (NODDS)  daily.  Items included on the charts will vary on an individual basis, with  respect  to  the  contours  for  the  particular  height, isotachs,  and  isotherms. The forecaster may use these charts directly for preparing forecasts, or in conjunction with their own prepared  products. A  complete  listing  of  charts available  with  descriptions  is  found  in  the  Navy Oceanographic  Data  Distribution  System  Products Manual,  FLENUMMETOCCENINST   3147.1. The   Fleet   Numerical   Meteorology   and Oceanography   Center   prepares   a   large   number of computer products for upper air forecasting. The Numerical  Environmental  Products  Manual, v o l u m e    3  ( E n v i r o n m e n t a l      P r o d u c t s ) , FLENUMMETOCCENINST  3145.2,  lists  available products. SUMMARY In this chapter we first discussed general prognostic considerations. The value of an accurate, hand drawn analysis was addressed, along with a discussion of available aids, including computer products and satellite imagery.  The  majority  of  this  chapter  deals  with objective forecasting techniques used in the preparation of  upper  level  charts.  The  first  topic  discussed  was  that of forecasting the movement of troughs and ridges, followed by a discussion on forecasting the intensity of troughs   and   ridges. Lastly,  forecasting  of  the movement, intensity, and the formation of upper level systems  and  associated  features  were  covered. 2-10

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